Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey Under Structural Breaks
Künye
Kilci, E. N. (2019). Analysis of the Causality Relationship between Brent Crude Oil Prices and Energy Import in Turkey under Structural Breaks. Business and Economics Research Journal, 10(4), 777-788.Özet
Turkey, struggling with the problem of high current account deficit, is an
energy dependent country due to lack of oil reserves. Therefore, the changes in energy
prices do have impacts on balance of payments through import channel. Considering
that energy imports constitutes the biggest share of current account deficit, it is
expected that the rise in oil prices will increase the imports upwards. The purpose of this
study is to analyze the causality relationship from Brent crude oil prices to energy import
by using the monthly data in the period of 2006:08-2018:12. The unit root properties of
the series are tested by using Fourier KPSS (2006) unit root test and the causality
relationship between the series is investigated by employing Fourier Granger (2016)
causality test. Both these tests take into account the impact of multiple structural
breaks. The results indicate that there is a causality relationship from Brent crude oil
prices to energy import in Turkey in the relevant period.